US public schools are losing students fast: What it means for teachers, budgets, and students
The future of public education in the United States is shifting, and the numbers back it up. According to the data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), national public school enrolment is not only lower than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is also projected to keep declining for years to come.While these numbers vary state by state, the broader story reveals demographic pressures, policy shifts, and long-term consequences for students, teachers, and state budgets. The data from NCES gives us a clear view of how enrolment trends have evolved since 2012 and what to expect in the decade ahead.
A million fewer students since 2020
Between the 2020 and 2024 academic years, US public schools lost 1.28 million students, a 2.5% drop in total enrolment. Some of the steepest declines came from states already facing demographic challenges. New York, California, Mississippi, and West Virginia each lost more than 5% of their student population.Only nine states saw any growth during that period, and even those gains were modest. North Dakota, for example, was the only state with an increase above 2%. These numbers reflect the uneven landscape of American education, shaped by cost-of-living shifts, migration patterns, and the expanding role of alternative schooling models.
A post-pandemic plateau and now, renewed decline
After hitting a low in 2021, enrolment inched upwards in 2022 and 2023. However, the recovery was short-lived. In 2024, NCES data shows that public schools again saw a net loss of over 102,000 students nationwide. Thirty-nine states recorded year-over-year declines.States like West Virginia, Arkansas, and Wyoming experienced some of the sharpest losses, with enrolment shrinking by up to 1.7%. Even states that posted modest gains such as New Jersey, South Carolina, and North Dakota saw growth under 1%.What is important to note is that this is not just a pandemic aftershock. It is part of a broader recalibration of public education that was already underway in many states well before 2020.
From growth to reversal: The long view
Between 2012 and 2020, enrolment in US public schools grew by 1.3 million students, a 2.6% increase. North Dakota (19%), Utah (14.3%), and Nevada (13%) led that growth. But the pandemic disrupted this momentum in ways that appear long-lasting.In Oregon, for example, enrolment rose by 7.5% between 2012 and 2020, only to fall by 6.2% between 2020 and 2024. Washington experienced a similar pattern, gaining 9.2% over eight years and losing 4.2% in the four years that followed.Some states, including California and New York, had relatively flat enrolment in the years leading up to the pandemic, but began to see sharper declines after 2020.
What lies ahead for public schools
Looking forward, NCES projections show public school enrolment will continue to fall, declining to approximately 46.9 million students by 2032. That marks a projected 5.3% drop from 2024 levels. States such as Hawaii, California, Mississippi, New Mexico, and New York are expected to lose more than 12% of their students in that period.Only 13 states are expected to see any increase in student numbers, which raises difficult questions about how to manage resources in areas facing population decline and how to scale infrastructure in areas where student numbers are rising.
What this means for students and schools
These shifts go beyond just numbers. Declining enrolment affects everything from school staffing and teacher recruitment to district funding models and building utilisation. Some districts have already begun consolidating schools, closing campuses, and reallocating resources.The NCES data underscores the need for policymakers to rethink long-term strategies around student distribution, staffing ratios, and the financial viability of school systems. The enrolment decline also intersects with broader debates around homeschooling, charter school growth, and how families make decisions about education.The COVID-19 pandemic may have accelerated trends already in motion, but the underlying forces behind shrinking public school enrolment are structural and ongoing. For educators, students, and policymakers, understanding these shifts is essential. The NCES data offers a roadmap for navigating what comes next.As the education landscape changes, so too must the conversations around it. For now, one thing is clear: in 2025, public school enrolment in the US is not just fluctuating, it is fundamentally evolving.TOI Education is on WhatsApp now. Follow us here.
