RECESSION: The ‘warning sign’ in the US Jobs report that enraged Donald Trump
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently revised down its employment estimates for May and June by a total of 2,58,000 jobs. Following the revisions, the jobs report revealed the slowest three-month hiring pace since the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. Reacting to the numbers, Donald Trump shared a post on Truth Social post where he wrote: “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”. So much so that he fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the BLS.
US Jobs report revisions raise alarm
The average monthly job growth in 2025 has dropped to just 85,000 — significantly below the pre-pandemic average of 177,000. While this slowdown doesn’t confirm a recession, experts say that it adds to a growing list of concerning indicators, including weaker GDP, slower manufacturing, and declining services sector activity. A CNN report quotes Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office who said “The job market is terrible. Outside of education and health, the economy has lost private sector jobs in the past three months. That’s terrible.”According to analysts, the steep downward revision in job numbers reflects deeper problems in the economy. Goldman Sachs noted the changes aligned with other slowing indicators, confirming the view that the US economy is growing “at a below-potential pace.”Bank of America economists, on the other hand, flagged the revisions as “undeniably concerning,” though they noted much of the shift was due to seasonal adjustments and delayed data submissions.
Trump tariffs blamed for hiring freeze
As per the report, some economists have also pointed to uncertainty around Trump’s trade tariffs as a reason businesses are pulling back on hiring.Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist, told the publication: “The US economy is in a muddle-through environment”. He said the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates soon, as the labor data shows the economy may be weaker than expected.Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds stated: “The president’s unorthodox economic agenda and policies may be starting to make a dent in the labor market. Businesses are not waiting — they are cutting back on hiring.”What’s nextAs mentioned above, a full-blown recession is yet to be confirmed despite red flags raised by the jobs report. The National Bureau of Economic Research — the official arbiter of US recessions — has not yet declared one, as key indicators like consumer spending and factory output haven’t shown consistent declines.Still, economists are urging caution as the labor market weakens. Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer at Brave Eagle Wealth Management said “Friday’s jobs report was terrible with recessionary-level numbers. It shows that companies are freezing hiring and firing until there is more policy certainty and business confidence.”
