Pakistan power players keep Imran jailed, shrink political space
ISLAMABAD: The fate of incarcerated former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, languishing in Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail for nearly two years, seems more precarious than ever following a deadly clash with India, shifting international priorities, and a domestic power nexus bent on keeping him confined.Khan’s detention, which began in Aug 2023 following his conviction in a graft case, has been widely described as a calculated move by Pakistan’s powerful military establishment and its civilian allies. Observers argue that the troika of Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, the Sharif brothers of the governing Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) view Khan’s release as an existential threat to their grip on power.The military’s centrality in managing the crisis during recent escalations of tensions with India has emboldened an already-unpopular coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and complicated the prospects of Khan’s release.Analysts argue that external conflict often bolsters the establishment’s narrative of national unity, stifling dissent. “In times of external conflict, the (military) establishment rallies public support and tightens its control over dissent,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based political commentator.Internal optimism of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party about his release seems increasingly delusional. While public statements from some party leaders forecast his imminent return, reports suggest that several have quietly forged ties with the military.A senior PTI figure, requesting anonymity, bluntly described them as “either naive or complicit” in managing expectations among the party’s base. Khan’s refusal to cut a deal — unlike Nawaz Sharif’s 2019 exile or Zardari’s well-known compromises — has positioned him as a prisoner of principle, but also rendered him politically isolated.International factors, once seen as a potential lifeline for Khan, have also faded. Ahead of the US presidential election in November 2024, some PTI supporters speculated that a Donald Trump victory could pressure Pakistan’s leadership to release Khan, citing concerns over controversial February 2024 elections, human rights abuses, and mass incarceration of PTI workers.However, recent developments have upended these expectations. Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership have worked diligently to mend ties with Washington, exemplified by the arrest and extradition of Sharifullah, a high-value militant wanted by the US. Trump’s public praise for Pakistan’s cooperation signalled a thaw in relations, further solidified by lobbying efforts and backchannel diplomacy between Pakistani authorities and Trump’s transition team.The domestic legal landscape offers little respite. Khan faces over 150 cases, many of which legal experts describe as politically motivated. The postponement of the land scam hearing against Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi in Islamabad high court last Wednesday underscores the judiciary’s reluctance, or inability, to challenge the establishment’s agenda. While PTI decries judicial bias, the government insists that Khan’s cases are rooted in evidence of corruption and misuse of power. “The law is taking its course,” said Information Minister Attaullah Tarar in a recent press conference, dismissing PTI’s protests as “political theatre”.For Khan’s supporters, the former cricket legend remains a symbol of resistance against a hybrid regime that blends military dominance with civilian acquiescence. Yet, the PTI’s ability to sustain momentum is waning. The party’s leadership is fractured, with many senior figures either in jail, in hiding, or abroad. The government’s crackdown on PTI’s social media networks and public gatherings has further curtailed its outreach.
