Gold price prediction today: Where are gold rates headed on July 8, 2025 and in the near-term amidst Donald Trump’s tariff moves?
Gold price prediction: Upside in gold may be capped due to extension of tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to continue trading within a broad range as clarity emerges on trade deal related developments. With Donald Trump extending the tariff deadline to August 1, yet announcing reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries, gold as a safe haven is not completely out of favour. Experts believe that it is important to track trade deal related movements to have better clarity on gold rate outlook. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:
Gold Performance:
- Spot gold traded between $3,296 and $3,343 on July 7. The yellow metal at the time of writing this article was changing hands at $3,330, down around 0.20% on the day. The metal initially fell as the US President extended the reciprocal tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1 and the US Dollar Index firmed up; however, it recouped most of its losses on risk aversion as President Trump planned to announce tariff rates for some of the countries on Monday.
- The MCX August gold contract was up by 0.21% at Rs 97,198 as the Indian Rupee weakened amid tariff concerns.
- Spot gold closed at $3,346 with a weekly gain of nearly 2% for the week ending July 4. Despite positive US nonfarm payroll and ISM services data, gold gained due to tariff uncertainty and a weaker US Dollar.
Tariff developments:
- The Trump Administration extended July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1. However, final and non-negotiable tariff letters are to be sent to 10 or 12 countries on Monday with more to follow.
- As announced on July 7, 2025, Japan and South Korea will be subjected to a 25% tariff rate (same rate as announced in April) from August 1. This rate is in addition to sectoral tariffs.
- Trump threatened additional 10% tariff on any countries aligning themselves with the “Anti-American policies” of the BRICS, which held its 17th BRICS summit in Rio De Janeiro on July 6-7 with focus on issues like AI, climate action, global peace and security.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent expects several trade deals to be announced over the next 48 hours.
Data roundup:
- US nonfarm payroll (June) report, released on July 3, was largely positive as US employers added 147K jobs Vs the expectation of 106K jobs, and the unemployment rate slid from 4.2% to 4.1% Vs the estimate of 4.3%, though decline in the unemployment rate was mainly due to jobseekers leaving the job pool. Average hourly earnings trailed the estimates.
- ISM services Index was back in expansion zone in June after a month as the Index at 50.80 surpassed the estimate of 50.60.
Upcoming data:
- The current week is light on data. FOMC minutes of June 18 FOMC meeting will be released on July 9.
- China’s PPI and CPI data (June) will be released on July 9.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- The US Dollar Index at 97.58 was up roughly 0.50% on the day.
- Ten-year US yields rose 3 bps to 4.38%.
Gold ETF and COMEX gold inventory:
- Total known global
gold ETF holdings stood at 90.52 MOz as of July 4. Although gold ETF holdings fell by 0.11 Moz for the week, holdings are still hovering around nearly 2-year high and are up 9.25% YTD. - As of July 4, COMEX gold inventory stood at 36.78 Moz, down over 18% from the record peak of 45.07Moz noted on April 4. Inventories continue to fall on demand for physical delivery.
China buys gold for the eighth straight month:
- China’s Central Bank’s gold reserves holding increased by 70,000 Ounces in June as the Bank extended its buying streak to the eighth consecutive month. Its gold reserves have increased by around 34.20 tons since the streak began in November.
Gold Price Outlook:
- China extending its gold buying spree and elevated ETF inflows are positive factors for the metal.
- Trump’s tariff announcements for targeted nations may lead gold to trade with a slight positive bias.
- Domestic prices are likely to be influenced more due to fluctuations in Rupee as emerging market currencies come under pressure. However, upside in gold may be capped due to extension of tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1.
- In the very short-term, the shiny metal is expected to trade between $3,292 (Rs 96,200) and $3,370 (Rs 98,500).
- Possibilities of breakthrough in trade deals will weigh on the metal, so traders need to monitor trade deal developments.
- Selling with tight stop-loss rallies is the preferred strategy in ultra-short term.
- Next major support and resistance levels are $3,247(Rs 94,800) and $3,400 (Rs 99,400) respectively.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
