Gold price prediction today: What’s the gold rate outlook for July 25, 2025; why a ‘sell on rise’ strategy makes sense?
Gold price prediction today: Gold rates will be under pressure with a bearish outlook for the near term, say analysts. Here’s the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities:Gold futures on MCX (Contract: 05AUG2025) continue to trade under pressure after a short-lived recovery, with technical indicators signaling that upside potential remains capped. The price is currently hovering around ₹98,749 after a sharp two-day decline, with short-term moving averages indicating a bearish structure. As a result, today’s outlook favors a Sell on Rise strategy in the ₹99,000 zone, with a stop-loss at ₹99,450.Technical Breakdown:1. EMA Resistance Holding Firm: The 8-period EMA stands at ₹98,735, while the 21-period EMA is at ₹98,700. Prices are currently sandwiched between these averages, but the broader trend shows a sustained failure to break above either decisively. This crossover pattern reinforces a weak recovery structure and favors short positions at resistance zones. 2. Bollinger Band Positioning: The price has been rejecting the middle band and is unable to approach the upper band convincingly. This behavior typically reflects low buying strength and enhances the probability of price rolling over near higher levels. 3. Pivot Points as Resistance: The immediate pivot-based resistances lie between ₹98,950 and ₹99,200. A supply zone around ₹99,000 has been tested but not convincingly breached, confirming it as a sell-trigger level for intraday traders.4. RSI Analysis: RSI is currently at 51.98, having rebounded from sub-30 levels but struggling to sustain above 60. This mid-zone reading indicates a lack of bullish momentum and supports the view of limited upside. 5. MACD (Not Shown, Implied from Trend): Although a minor crossover may have occurred during the bounce, the MACD histogram likely remains flat or mildly positive. There is no strong bullish divergence to suggest a trend reversal, implying rallies may remain corrective. 6. Price Structure and Reversal Zones: Price continues to follow a lower-high lower-low structure on the intraday chart. The recent bounce appears more like a technical pullback rather than a change in trend. Selling near key resistance levels offers a favorable risk-reward setup. Conclusion:The short-term outlook for gold remains cautious, with bearish signals intact across major indicators. Intraday traders may look to Sell on Rise near ₹99,000, keeping a stop-loss at ₹99,450 and aiming for potential downside targets of ₹98,400 and ₹98,150. Weak momentum, resistance-heavy zones, and failed recovery above moving averages all point to the likelihood of further downside. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
