Gold market outlook: Prices to stay firm next week; risk aversion, weak dollar to fuel gains
Gold prices are expected to remain firm in the upcoming week, supported by heightened global risk aversion, sustained weakness in the US dollar index, and a series of trade-related developments as key supporting factors, analysts said.They further added that investors will be focusing on key US data releases, including Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) and retail sales figures, which could offer further cues for bullion prices.Jateen Trivedi, VP, research analyst, commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said gold is likely to remain strong as long as it stays above Rs 97,000 per 10 grams on the MCX. “Renewed trade tariff jitters and continued weakness in the dollar index are amplifying global risk aversion, prompting a shift away from risky assets toward safe-haven instruments like bullion,” Trivedi said, adding that a weak rupee may further support the upward trajectory of the yellow metal’s price. Last week, the yellow metal futures for August delivery rose Rs 842, or 0.86 per cent, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Investments, said gold started the week on a weaker note as easing tensions between Israel and Iran, along with stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, dampened safe-haven demand. However, prices rebounded after US President Donald Trump imposed fresh tariffs ranging from 35 to 50% on Canada and Brazil, reigniting fears of a trade war and lifting bullion demand. Traders are also watching the ongoing negotiations between India and the US for a potential trade deal, which could influence market sentiment, Hareesh V said, quoted by PTI. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold prices have surged nearly 3 per cent on the MCX, rising from Rs 94,951 per 10 grams on June 27 to Rs 97,830 on July 11. Internationally, Comex gold futures have jumped around 2.8% over the same period. Mallya attributed the gains to the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff stance on commodities like copper, aluminium, and pharmaceuticals. President Trump’s signal that the August 1 tariff deadline will not be extended has added to market uncertainty. “Gold typically performs well during such periods of elevated risk,” Mallya said, projecting a possible move towards $3,500 per ounce and Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams on the MCX in the near term. On Friday, Comex gold futures for August delivery rose $38.30, or 1.15%, to close at $3,364 per ounce. N S Ramaswamy, head of commodities and CRM at Ventura, said gold’s key resistance of $3,360 has been tested and a decisive break could trigger further gains, even as the US dollar remains firm and on a recovery path. Geopolitical tensions, including potential US sanctions on Russia and the threat of more tariffs, could continue to support gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, Ramaswamy added.
