Gold price prediction today: Will gold & silver prices continue to climb new highs? What investors should watch out for
Considering the risks involved, buyers are urged to exercise caution and to put suitable stoploss. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are touching new record highs due to heightened geopolitical tensions, says Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. Here’s his outlook on gold prices:Gold Performance:
- In the week ending January 16, the spot gold surged nearly 2% to close at $4595. The rally in the week came on the heels of a sharp 4.6% rise in the week ending January 9.
- Driven by safe haven demand as the US President on January 17 threatened 8 EU nations with 10% tariffs beginning February 1 in retaliation to their opposition to his Greenland plans, the yellow metal extended its rally to a fresh record high of $4690 on January 19.
- At the time of writing this article, the shiny metal was changing hands at $4672 (MCX February contract Rs 145,500), up 1.67% for the day.
ETF and COMEX gold inventory:
- As of January 16, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 99.86 MOz, highest since August 2022, and are up nearly 1% YTD, as holdings rose for the second straight week.
- Registered COMEX gold inventory at 18.86 MOz, is up around 1 MOz from the cycle low of 17.86 MOz but is down over 22% from the record peak of 24.25 MOz seen on April 7.
Dollar Index and yields:The US Dollar Index fell around 0.15% to 99.08 on January 19 after rising for three straight weeks.Two-year and ten-year treasury yields jumped nearly 2% last week as the US President expressed doubt over the appointment of Kevin Hassett, a key proponent of lower rate policy. Trump wants to keep him at the White House.The US Bond market was closed on January 19 to observe Martin Luther King Jr Holiday.Trade and tariffs:Trump rattled NATO allies over the weekend after threatening to impose 10% tariffs on 8 EU nations starting February 1 if he doesn’t get control of Greenland.Tariffs will be increased to 25% from June 1. The proposed tariff will be due and payable until a deal is reached for complete and total purchase of Greenland.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Europe was too weak to ensure Greenland’s security in an interview on Sunday.International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said it’s too early to gauge the economic impact of tensions over Greenland, though it could be a headwind for growth.EU ambassadors met on Sunday to discuss options if Trump follows through with his threats. They are considering €93 billion ($108 billion) worth of American goods. The bloc’s leaders are due to meet for an emergency summit on Thursday.The European Union is once again weighing whether to use its most powerful economic weapon — the anti-coercion instrument (ACI) — in a dispute with a major trading partner. The instrument allows the EU to deploy an array of measures in response to coercive trade tactics. It may include new fees on EU imports of US goods and services, curbs on US investments in Europe or a ban on American firms bidding for public contracts.US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs:The pending US Supreme Court ruling on some of Trump’s earlier tariffs may come as soon as Tuesday.Annual World Economic Forum in Davos:President Trump will address the annual World Economic Forum in Davos this week and may offer details of home ownership plans for helping Americans buy homes by making it possible to take money out of their 401(K)s and use that for downpayment.Bloomberg reported that respondents in a World Economic Forum survey identify ‘geoeconomic confrontation’ and ‘state-based armed conflict’ as the two biggest risks to the global backdrop in 2026.As per Axios, the US officials plan to focus on economic growth, home ownership and peace through strength at WEF, Davos.Data roundup:China’s data released on January 19 showed that China’s economy grew 4.5% on an annualized basis in Q4 2025 vs 4.4% expected. China’s retail sales hit a 3-year low in December, trailing the forecast. Similarly, China’s industrial production, fixed asset investment (December) trailed their respective forecasts.Last week’s data showed that US CPI (December), despite expectations of coming out to be hot on downward adjustments in the November CPI data, was tame. CPI y-o-y was up 2.7% (forecast 2.7%, prior 2.7%). The core CPI also rose 2.7% y-o-y (forecast 2.7%, prior 2.7%). Retail sales advance was up 0.6% m-o-m Vs the estimate of 0.5% and prior reading of -0.1%), while retail sales control group up 0.4% (forecast 0.4%, prior 0.6%).PPI final demand data were hotter than expected though.Industrial production data, released on Friday, was up 0.4% m-o-m (forecast 0.1%) in December.Upcoming data:Major US data on the deck this week include 3Q GDP final reading (January 22), real personal spending (January 22), PCE Price Index (January 22) and S&P Global US PMIs, University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (January 23).Major Eurozone data to be released this week include CPI (January 19), services and composite PMIs (January 23). The UK’s CPI (January 21), services and composite PMIs (January 23) will also be monitored by investors.Gold Price Outlook:Fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions over Greenland as Trump threatens the EU nations with tariffs to achieve his goal is an unexpected development which is supporting gold prices. Heightened worries and repercussions may also affect global trade and economy. Otherwise, gold could have come under pressure due to diminishing possibility of Hassett becoming the next Fed Chair, a firmer US Dollar and thawing geopolitical tensions as Iran strike had been averted.Still, US Supreme Court ruling over Trump’s tariffs may create huge short-term volatility as his tariffs may be lacking legal basis, though the Trump Administration could resort to other clauses to keep most of the tariffs in place.Trump extending the EU tariff deadline will also weigh on the yellow metal.Spot gold may test resistance around $4750 (MCX February contract Rs 148,000) amid elevated US-EU tariff tensions.However, considering the risks involved, buyers are urged to exercise caution and to put suitable stoploss. Support is at $4608 (Rs 143,500)/$4560 (Rs 142,000). Interim resistance is at $4707 (Rs 146,500). Silver outlook:Spot silver surged over 12% in the week ending January 16 as it closed at $89.94 on January 16.Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver price (T+D) at 23271 CNY/Kg is equivalent to around $104/Oz.US imposing tariffs on EU means that the expected flow of silver inventories from COMEX warehouses to LBMA warehouses will be disrupted, which will tighten the spot market.Spot silver, currently at $94.42 (MCX March contract Rs 309,660), up nearly 5% for the day, is expected to trade with a positive bias that will strengthen should the metal closes above $94 mark for two straight days. It may rise to test the resistance zone of $98-$100 (MCX March contract Rs 321,000-Rs 328,000). However, as mentioned earlier in the gold section, utmost caution is needed with a suitable stoploss in place. Support is at $90 (Rs 295,000)/$86 (Rs 282,000).(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
